Learnlets

Secondary

Clark Quinn’s Learnings about Learning

Trends for 2019?

21 November 2018 by Clark 3 Comments

It’s already started!  Like Christmas (which morally shouldn’t be even be thought about before Thanksgiving), requests for next year’s trends should be on hold until at least December.  Still, a request came in for my thoughts. Rather than send them off and await their emergence; I toss them out here, with a caveat: “It’s tough to make predictions, particularly about the future.”

1. What, on your opinion, are the main Digital Learning (DL) trends for 2019?

I think the main trend will be an increasing exploration of alternatives to ‘courses’.  This will include performance support, and social networks. Similarly, models for formal learning will shift from the ‘event’ model to a more sustained and distributed framework that segues from spaced learning through coaching.

I sincerely hope that we’ll be paying more attention to aligning learning with cognition, and pursue ‘shiny objects‘ only  after we establish a solid foundation. Instead of looking for the magic bullet, we’ll recognize that our brain architecture means we need a drip-irrigation model, not a flood.

This may be wishful thinking, but I believe we’re beginning to see some positive signs. We’re seeing more interest in  learning science, growing awareness of  myths, and more. Hopefully there’s an accompanying shift from being fascinated by technology to being interested in what technology can  do for better learning outcomes!

2. What are the main threats and obstacles, then?

The main threats and obstacles are several. For one, our own lack of understanding of the foundations of our industry hampers us. When we don’t really understand learning, we can be swayed by well-designed distractors.  That’s the second factor: there are those who are happy selling us the latest fad.

Coupled with this is a lack of business awareness in our own practices. We measure the wrong things, e.g. efficiency – such as cost/seat/hour. And we’re reluctant to talk to the stakeholders in the business. We should be worried about impact: are we reducing costs, increasing profitability or customer satisfaction?

Overall, we’re hampered by a true lack of professionalism. We learn the tools, and crank stuff out, but we’re not concerned enough about whether it’s demonstrably the  right  stuff.

3. Do you believe in the AI and DL robotization? When does this bright future come?

I believe in increasing use of AI to support functions that shouldn’t involve humans. It’s silly to have people  doing rote things we can teach computers to do. That includes responding to knowledge requests, and filtering, and a few other tasks.  However, I think we need to recognize that not all the things needed in learning, such as evaluating complex work products,  should be done by machines. I think we should look for when we can automate, and when we want people in the loop.

So I’m more interested in IA (not AI): Intelligence Augmentation.  That is, what is the  right distribution of tasks between machine and people?  There are things that computers do well, but they’re remarkably brittle; as of yet they don’t handle edge cases, or make good inferences in the grey areas very well. That’s when you want people. I think our design discipline needs to be smart about when to use each, and how they complement each other.

The future of IA is already underway, as is AI. We’re seeing, and will see more, uses of AI to filter, to answer questions, and to take over rote tasks.  These behaviors are not yet ready to be termed ‘bright’, however. Some success stories are emerging, but I suspect we don’t hear much yet about the money being wasted.  The time of consistency in effective synergies is still a few years off.

4. Your advice to the market for 2019.

Work smarter!  Get smart about learning science, about business, and about what technology can (and can’t) do. I’d like to see: staff pushing more for real impact via metrics, leaders asking for business cases not order taking, vendors pushing solutions not resource savings, and buyers asking for real evidence.  I’d like to see smarter purchasing, and the snake oil sales folks’ business withering away.  We can do better!

And I realize that my proposed trends are more wishful thinking than predictions. One of my favorite quotes is by Alan Kay: “The best way to predict the future is to invent it” so I keep pushing this agenda. My goal is simple: to make this a field I’m truly  proud to be working in. The folks in L&D, I think, are some of the nicest folks; they’re here because they  want to help others (you don’t go to L&D to become rich ;). I think there’s a promising future, but it doesn’t start with AI or ML or DL, it starts with getting down to the realities of how we learn, and how we can support it. When we do that, I think our future  will be one which will help our organizations and our people thrive. Our future  can be bright, and it’s up to us to make it so.

Comments

  1. Barry Eames says

    21 November 2018 at 2:30 PM

    Some good insights Clark, as usual!

    Concerning point #3 and AI in particular, I was recently in a webinar concerning Robots and Chatbots in Instructional Design, presented by Vicki Kunkel.

    A comment she made (one of many) caught my attention:
    “ID’s are now strategists not content creators”. Which would appear to echo your point #4

Trackbacks

  1. Tendencias eLearning 2019 | Christian Diani says:
    8 January 2019 at 12:32 PM

    […] será una exploración cada vez mayor de alternativas a los “cursos” (Referencia: https://blog.learnlets.com/2018/11/trends-for-2019/). En este sentido el “eLearning a medida” será el camino a seguir. Las empresas […]

  2. The Learning Management System Market Keeps Growing In 2019 and Beyond - LMS.org says:
    19 March 2019 at 2:09 PM

    […] are more flexible and may yield better results. According to learning technology strategy leader Clark Quinn, “[Course alternatives] will include performance support and social networks. Similarly, models […]

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Clark Quinn

The Company

Search

Feedblitz (email) signup

Never miss a post
Your email address:*
Please wait...
Please enter all required fields Click to hide
Correct invalid entries Click to hide

Pages

  • About Learnlets and Quinnovation

The Serious eLearning Manifesto

Manifesto badge

Categories

  • design
  • games
  • meta-learning
  • mindmap
  • mobile
  • social
  • strategy
  • technology
  • Uncategorized
  • virtual worlds

Blogroll

  • Charles Jennings
  • Christy Tucker
  • Connie Malamed
  • Dave's Whiteboard
  • Donald Clark's Plan B
  • Donald Taylor
  • Harold Jarche
  • Julie Dirksen
  • Kevin Thorn
  • Mark Britz
  • Mirjam Neelen & Paul Kirschner
  • Stephen Downes' Half an Hour

License

Previous Posts

  • March 2023
  • February 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • November 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • May 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • November 2010
  • October 2010
  • September 2010
  • August 2010
  • July 2010
  • June 2010
  • May 2010
  • April 2010
  • March 2010
  • February 2010
  • January 2010
  • December 2009
  • November 2009
  • October 2009
  • September 2009
  • August 2009
  • July 2009
  • June 2009
  • May 2009
  • April 2009
  • March 2009
  • February 2009
  • January 2009
  • December 2008
  • November 2008
  • October 2008
  • September 2008
  • August 2008
  • July 2008
  • June 2008
  • May 2008
  • April 2008
  • March 2008
  • February 2008
  • January 2008
  • December 2007
  • November 2007
  • October 2007
  • September 2007
  • August 2007
  • July 2007
  • June 2007
  • May 2007
  • April 2007
  • March 2007
  • February 2007
  • January 2007
  • December 2006
  • November 2006
  • October 2006
  • September 2006
  • August 2006
  • July 2006
  • June 2006
  • May 2006
  • April 2006
  • March 2006
  • February 2006
  • January 2006

Amazon Affiliate

Required to announce that, as an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Mostly book links. Full disclosure.